Market Memo

Alright, let’s get into it, because the first week of February 2026 was wild in a very specific, uncomfortable way. The whole thing started with what people are already calling the Warsh Shock, after Kevin Warsh got nominated as the next Fed Chair, and immediately the dollar took off and the debasement trade got smoked, catching a lot of people leaning the wrong way. At first it felt like a normal adjustment, but by Friday it turned into a straight-up deleveraging event, with gold getting crushed in its worst single-day drop since 2008, silver collapsing more than 25 percent, and Bitcoin briefly dumping below 70,000 before bouncing late, which told you this wasn’t about one asset, it was about positioning. What was honestly crazy was that equities just refused to care. Even with a partial government shutdown and insane volatility everywhere else, stocks powered through it, and Friday capped things off with the Dow ripping more than 1,200 points to close above 50,000 for the first time ever, which felt unreal considering what was happening everywhere else. Tech names led the late-week bounce with Nvidia front and center, but the bigger shift was quieter, as money started rotating out of crowded AI trades and into value like healthcare and industrials, especially after Amazon’s earnings disappointed and some of the AI hype cooled off. Throw in rising tensions in the Middle East and a surprisingly strong ISM Manufacturing report, and by the end of the week the market felt like it was celebrating record highs while also bracing for a tougher, dollar-first regime, which is a weird mix, but that’s kind of where we’re at right now.